Christmas 22 - an exciting duck and dive challenge!
So here we are ... the final furlong to Christmas, the most drawn out, long winded peak of the calendar; fun the first time you hear Mariah - 381 times later a bit tedious!
But what will Christmas 2022 look like trade wise? Going to be honest ... even at this late stage that would require me to have a crystal ball that worked, the ability to get inside the brains of the economists and politicians (yuck!!) and the weather prediction skills of a genius.
Because with consumer confidence being bashed left right and centre just at at the moment it’s still too early to call.
We may have got through the mini budget but the whole global economic situation is still parlous, the war in Ukraine continues to impact - even if it were to end tomorrow it wouldn’t instantly change things - and as we enter much colder weather rather than the bizarre higher than average temperatures of November that opens up a whole other scenario. You can read our Supply Chain report here but as I said back in October it's an evolving story and will stay that way for some considerable time - see the news about Arend here.
But if I had to make any prediction it would be that it will be tough but not a decimation – especially for those of us who have been around a bit.
The Garden Centre sector have indicated strong Christmas sales but overall I’m thinking floristry will see 2018/2019 levels - not least because we could never ever hit the heady heights of Covid induced sales of 20/21 – but obviously with far lower profitability as price increases across the board bite.
However I am certainly not despairing!
You see with the retail (supermarkets/online players) sector reducing their buying – precise numbers not available due to confidentiality but happening - and quite obviously reducing their quality – head sizes are clearly smaller as I guess they try to get the same stem count at lower prices – never mind the fact they could face far bigger supply issues than smaller buyers I also reckon there is a HUGE opportunity for independent florists to switch customers back to them.
Because as I keep saying one of the biggest advantages independent bespoke florists have is their ability to duck and dive on flower choices every week – heck pretty much every day if you wanted.
Bespoke florists don’t need to be ruled by the 3 gerbera/2 chrysanth/four squitty roses syndrome and instead can really take advantage of everything that is out there to create a whole host of designs that are still a decent size, look amazing, ooze sooooooo much more style than anything that can be sold in a supermarket or sent in a box and at every price point.
Yes it is going to mean marketing like you’ve never marketed before. Yes it is going to test the design skills to the hilt - here experience is going to be crucial and newbies may struggle. Yes it will take more time to buy and your eyes may glaze over as you scroll back and forth through your wholesalers websites to find the best options but that ability to duck and dive and literally think outside the box could not only be the salvation of Christmas 2022 but far more fun!
OK Mariah ... do your worst ... I'm ready for you!!
Caroline Marshall-Foster
Editor
